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At that time, the combined funds' reserves will become depleted and continuing tax income will be sufficient to pay 80 percent of scheduled benefits. The hypothetical combined OASI and DI funds would be able to pay scheduled benefits on a timely basis until 2035, one year later than reported last year. The report also presents information that combines the reserves of these two funds in order to illustrate the actuarial status of the Social Security program as a whole.

The OASI and DI funds are separate entities under law.

By comparison, last year's report projected that it would be able to pay scheduled benefits only until 2057.

The Disability Insurance (DI) Trust Fund, which pays disability benefits, is no longer projected to be depleted within the 75-year projection period.

At that time, the fund's reserves will become depleted and continuing tax income will be sufficient to pay 77 percent of scheduled benefits.

The Old-Age and Survivors Insurance (OASI) Trust Fund, which pays retirement and survivors benefits, will be able to pay scheduled benefits on a timely basis until 2034, one year later than reported last year.

The Trustees will continue to monitor these and any future developments and modify the projections in later reports as appropriate.īased on our best estimates, the 2022 reports determine: Developments since then have added to the uncertainty regarding the path of the COVID-19 pandemic and the economy in the near-term.

In addition, the assumptions for this report were determined in mid-February 2022. We currently assume that the pandemic will have no net effect on our long-range projections. Economic recovery from the 2020 recession has been stronger and faster than assumed in last year's reports, with positive effects on the projected actuarial status of the trust funds in these reports.Īt this time, there is no consensus among experts on the lasting effects of the COVID-19 pandemic. The projections presented include our best estimates of the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Medicare costs will continue to grow faster than GDP through the late 2070s due to projected increases in the volume and intensity of services provided. Costs of both programs will grow faster than gross domestic product (GDP) through the mid-2030s primarily due to the rapid aging of the U.S. Social Security and Medicare both face long-term financing shortfalls under currently scheduled benefits and financing. This summary of the 2022 reports presents results based on the intermediate set of assumptions, which represents our best estimates of likely future demographic, economic, and program-specific conditions. We believe the reports fully and fairly present the current and projected financial condition of the programs. The Trustees Reports include extensive information about the current operations of these important social insurance programs and careful analysis of their outlook.

Each year the Trustees of the Social Security and Medicare trust funds report on the current and projected financial status of the two programs.